By: Justin “Couz” Walker | WV Sports Chat
After a top 25 recruiting class and some talented players added via the transfer portal, there’s a lot of optimism among WVU football fans heading into the 2026 season.
Apparently, the folks at FanDuel do not share that optimism. Last week, the popular sports betting site released their annual over/under win total projections for college football teams. They have the Mountaineers winning 5.5 games in Rich Rodriguez’s second year back at the helm of the program.
In this article, I will list four reasons why WVU will exceed that win total in 2026. In no way is this me giving betting advice. I’ll actually be doing a second article on why West Virginia could fall short of 5.5 wins.
In the meantime, here’s why West Virginia football could win more than 5.5 games and go bowling in 2026.
Continuity on Coaching Staff
Year one was a struggle for Rodriguez and his staff. They got a late start recruiting the transfer portal. They basically inherited Neal Brown’s recruiting class and what was left of his roster, which wasn’t much. A large percentage of the roster transferred out of the program after the coaching change.
One detail that often gets overlooked when talking about Rodriguez’s first year back is the fact he had to build a coaching staff. Not only did that take some time, which impacted recruiting, it was also a learning process for not only the players, but also for the staff.
It’s well documented how all of the players had to adapt to Rodriguez and his style of coaching. What doesn’t often get mentioned is how much of the coaching staff was new to Rodriguez’s style as well. Several of the assistant coaches like Jeff Casteel, Rhett Rodriguez, Zac Alley, Michael Nysewander, and others had worked for Rodriguez in the past. However, there were also several who were not familiar with Rodriguez’s way of doing things. Coaches like inside receivers coach Logan Bradley, safeties coach Gabe Franklin, and cornerbacks coach Rod West are three examples who were coaching under Rodriguez for the first time. They are all back for year two.
WVU was forced to replace three assistant coaches in the offseason. Running backs coach Larry Porter left for Auburn and Casteel retired. Former Kentucky running backs coach Jay Boulware was hired to replace Porter. Casteel was originally replaced by Larry Knight, but Knight shortly left to take a job at Georgia. Former Arkansas defensive ends coach Deke Adams replaced Knight. While Boulware and Adams are both new to the Rodriguez staff, adjusting to two coaches is much easier than an entire staff working together for the first time.
Rebuilt Offensive Line
Last year, the WVU offense frequently sputtered. They struggled to not only score, but often struggled to even gain a yard on multiple attempts. Some of that was due to injuries to key players like Jahiem White. Some of it was due to inconsistent quarterback play. Primarily, though, it was due to the offensive line not being able to get push. Rodriguez set out to change that in 2026. He made changes to the roster and the o-line coach.
Let’s start with the roster. West Virginia brought in multiple players with over 1,000 snaps of experience at their previous FBS stops. Wes King (Wyoming), Carsten Casady (UConn), Amare Grayson (Jacksonville State), and Cam Griffin (Jacksonville State) have all played over 1,000 snaps in their careers. Devin Vass (Kansas State) does not have as many snaps (over 700) but all have come at the power four level and specifically in the Big 12. Then there’s freshman phenom Kevin Brown, the four-star the Mountaineers were able to flip from Penn State. The son of former WVU football player Tim Brown has already set multiple weight room records since arriving on campus just two months ago. The Harrisburg, PA native is expected to compete for a starting job. That’s rare for a true freshman at the power four level.
Then there’s the return of offensive line coaching legend Rick Trickett. I know what you are thinking. If Trickett is returning, then WVU technically had to replace four coaches in the offseason, right? Yes, but there is a catch. Trickett was brought in by choice. Rodriguez openly admitted that he tried to hire Trickett prior to last season. However, the veteran coach did not want to depart Jacksonville State at the time. Instead, Rodriguez hired another coaching veteran in Jack Bicknell Jr. Rodriguez and Bicknell worked together for one season at Ole Miss when Rodriguez was the offensive coordinator in 2019.
After the season, Rodriguez was able to get his guy and hired Trickett on a two-year contract. Bicknell’s contract expired and he was not retained.
By getting Trickett, Rodriguez was able to get a coach that he is familiar with. Trickett was the O-line coach under Rodriguez during WVU football’s successful run in the 2000s. He also recently worked on Rodriguez’s staff at Jacksonville State from 2022-2024. There will be no learning curve between the two. They both speak the same language and have the same “hard edge” coaching style.
Throw in the fact that starters Nick Krahe (LT) and Landen Livingston (C) are returning from last season, this offensive line should be much better in 2026. While Krahe and Livingston were far from perfect, they were arguably the two most consistent performers upfront for WVU in 2025. Their return, along with the return of Malik Agbo and Josh Aisosa, gives this year’s group a head start compared to last year’s brand new unit.
Quarterback Position
The quarterback position was a revolving door in Morgantown in 2025. Between injuries to the top four guys and inconsistent play, the offense struggled to find its footing. Then, along came Scotty Fox. The Ohio native was recruited by Neal Brown but chose to hang around for the new staff. The true freshman was thrust into action earlier than Rodriguez probably expected, but after struggling with two interceptions against Pitt, he improved as the season progressed.
Fox eventually led the Mountaineers to a road upset over number 22 Houston and a home win over Colorado. The dual threat signal caller also played well in close losses to Arizona State and TCU. The 6-foot-2 sophomore returns with a year of experience and more knowledge of Rodriguez’s fast-paced spread offense.
Then there’s Michael Hawkins Jr. The former four-star recruit joined the WVU football program after transferring from Oklahoma. He’s another dual threat who may be even scarier with his legs than Fox. Hawkins started a handful of games during his time with the Sooners, but mostly served in a backup role to both Dillon Gabriel and John Mateer.
WVU seems to be a perfect fit for Hawkins’ skillset. Both players will almost certainly get better from a true quarterback competition throughout spring and fall camp. At least one, if not both, will come away more than capable of running Rodriguez’s offense successfully.
Friendlier Schedule in 2026
Finally, there’s the schedule. Last year’s 4-8 campaign saw West Virginia play only four Big 12 home games, plus a rare road game against a G6 opponent. In 2026 things change. WVU gets five Big 12 games inside Milan Puskar Stadium. Plus, they get their annual FCS opponent and a G6 opponent at home in Coastal Carolina. That equates to seven home games. They also don’t play any true road games in the non-conference part of the schedule. Their annual power four non-conference game is a neutral site game in Charlotte against the Virginia Cavaliers. As well as Mountaineer fans travel to Charlotte, there’s a chance that contest will feel more like a home game for WVU.
While the 2026 Mountaineer team is going through another roster overhaul with over 80 new players, they aren’t alone. Two of the Big 12 Conference foes on West Virginia’s football schedule are going through rebuilds of their own.
Oklahoma State, who has not won a conference game in two years, replaced Mike Gundy with former North Texas coach Eric Morris. The air-raid disciple is also replacing most of his roster with over 70 new players of his own. Seventeen of those players, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker, followed him from North Texas. While that can help in the rebuild, the Cowboys will be playing their first Big 12 game in Morgantown in late September. That’s not an easy task for anyone, especially a team still trying to figure things out with a new staff and new roster.
West Virginia’s second Big 12 opponent is Iowa State. The Cyclones may be in the most challenging position of any team in the league. They lost most of their roster to former coach Matt Campbell and his new team, Penn State.
New coach Jimmy Rogers has his work cut out for him, but it’s not new territory. He had to do a similar rebuild last season at Washington State and was able to lead the Cougars to a 6-6 record with a bowl appearance.
Even though West Virginia travels to Iowa State, and Ames is never an easy place to play, the fact the Cyclones are in year one of a rebuild means any disadvantage the Mountaineers have should be minimal.
With Oklahoma State and Iowa State as the first two Big 12 games on the schedule, it’s possible this WVU football team could start the season 4-1 or even 5-0. That would be a great confidence booster going into the second half of the season. The competition, at least on paper, seems to get much tougher on the back half of the schedule. So a quick start is important. It’s also very doable.
Stay tuned to WV Sports Chat for reasons to take the under on WVU Football’s win total for 2026.
To see a video version of the top reasons West Virginia football will be better in 2026, check out the link below for an episode of Couz’s Corner.
Photo Credit: WVU Athletics
