By: Justin Walker | WV Sports Chat
West Virginia needs a win, and Cincinnati is a tough opponent to get it against. The Mountaineers (3-3, 0-3) host the 4-1 Bearcats on Saturday for Homecoming, and it’s setting up to be a slug fest. Both teams want to win on the ground.
Let’s look at how the two stack up.
WVU is fourth in the country in rushing at 295.5 yards per game. Cam Cook has 793 yards and seven touchdowns, and quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. has 672 yards and 12 touchdowns, the most by a quarterback in the Big 12. The Mountaineers also convert 49.5% of their third downs, which is one of the reasons the offense averages 36.3 points per game.
Cincinnati is 12th nationally at 230.8 rushing yards per game. Gi’Bran Payne averages 6.3 yards per carry, and Cole Tabb averages 9.7 with six rushing touchdowns on just 34 carries. Quarterback JC French IV has completed 69.9% of his passes for 949 yards and six touchdowns without an interception.
The Bearcats have the edge in a few areas:
- Turnovers: Cincinnati has turned the ball over just twice all season and is +5 in margin. WVU has lost six fumbles and is even.
- Red zone: UC has scored touchdowns on 17 of 20 trips inside the 20. WVU has scored on 18 of 28 (64.3%).
- Passing defense: WVU is allowing 297.0 passing yards per game and has given up 14 touchdowns through the air.
- Defense overall: Cincinnati allows 23.2 points per game, while the Mountaineers allow 32.7.
West Virginia has a few advantages too:
- Third down defense: WVU has held opponents to 35.2%, while Cincinnati has allowed 45.6%.
- Field goals: The Mountaineers are 5 of 5. The Bearcats are 3 of 5.
- Arizona’s blueprint: The Wildcats ran for 238 yards on Cincinnati, so the Bearcats can be run on.
The biggest concern is Tabb. He has touchdown runs of 36, 53 and 30 yards this season, so the Mountaineers will have to tackle well and not miss angles on the edge. Linebacker Jonathan Thompson is another player to watch. He has 5.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks and two forced fumbles in Nate Woody’s new 3-4 defense.
Holding Cincinnati under 24 points and not turning the ball over are the two keys for WVU. The Bearcats have forced nine fumbles this year, so Hawkins and the backs will need to hold on to the ball on every read and carry.
There are some injury questions as well. Third-party sites listed tight end C. Ball and running backs A. Devine and M. Boswell as out as of Oct. 10, along with wide receiver J. Neider. Those aren’t official designations, so keep an eye out for the final availability report.
Overall, this looks like a close game between two teams with strong rushing attacks. Whichever team protects the ball and wins on third down has the better shot at a win.
The Mountaineers (3-3, 0-3) host the Bearcats (4-1, 1-1) on Saturday at Milan Puskar Stadium. Kickoff is at 12:00pm Eastern time.
