By: Justin Walker | WV Sports Chat
The WVU football team heads to Fort Worth this weekend looking to build on last week’s win over Cincinnati. The Mountaineers get a TCU team that’s very hard to score on. One of the Big 12’s best offenses will meet the league’s best defense.
Let’s look at how the two stack up.
WVU (4-3, 1-3) averages 37.6 points and 497.1 yards per game. The Mountaineers are rushing for 272.4 yards per game and converting 49.1% of their third downs. Michael Hawkins Jr. has 1,519 passing yards, 749 rushing yards and 24 total touchdowns through seven games.
TCU (3-3, 1-2) is a different kind of team. The Horned Frogs score 24.0 points per game and throw for 282.3 yards, but they run for only 110.0. Quarterback Jaden Craig has 1,694 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions while completing 66.8% of his passes. Ed Small leads the receivers with 35 catches for 494 yards, and tight end Kari Ashley has 29 catches, 392 yards and four touchdowns.
The Horned Frogs have the edge in a few areas:
- Scoring defense: TCU allows just 12.2 points per game. WVU allows 34.0.
- Total defense: TCU gives up 264.2 yards per game, compared to 483.9 for the Mountaineers.
- Run defense: The Horned Frogs allow 92.0 rushing yards per game and only 2.9 yards per carry.
- Pass defense: TCU allows 172.2 passing yards per game. WVU allows 310.1.
- Third down defense: TCU holds opponents to 30.2%, while WVU allows 38.1%.
West Virginia has a few advantages too:
- Rushing offense: WVU averages 272.4 yards per game on the ground, compared to TCU’s 110.0.
- Total offense: The Mountaineers average 497.1 yards per game, while TCU averages 392.3.
- Third down offense: WVU converts 49.1%, while TCU converts 41.5%.
- Protection problems: TCU has given up 17 sacks, including four in each of its last three games against UCF, BYU and Baylor.
The biggest concern is the TCU defensive front. Defensive coordinator Andy Avalos runs a 4-2-5 with athletic linemen, and Koron Hayward leads the way with 4.5 sacks. The Horned Frogs also bring a lot of pressure on third-and-long, so WVU can’t afford to fall behind the chains. Baylor scored just six points against TCU last week and ran for only 54 yards.
The Horned Frogs aren’t perfect on offense, though. They scored 10, 13, 10 and 17 points in a four-game stretch against North Carolina, UCF, BYU and Baylor. Passing makes up about 72% of their yardage, so the Mountaineers will have to limit the deep ball. They also have to stay disciplined against Ashley and fellow tight end Ka’Morreun Pimpton in the red zone.
Holding TCU under 24 points and scoring 27 or more are the two keys for WVU. Hawkins will need to make defenders pick between him and Cam Cook, and the Mountaineers should lean on motion, quick throws and screens to blunt the pressure. Prince Strachan and DJ Epps are the receivers to watch for play-action shots.
There are some injury questions as well. Per the Big 12 availability reports released Thursday night, TCU’s leading rusher, Jeremy Payne, is listed as questionable for the contest. The aforementioned Ashley is as well. For West Virginia, defensive lineman Corey McIntyre Jr. and cornerback Jason Chambers are both listed as doubtful for Saturday. Nick Taylor (CB), Harper Holloman (EDGE) and John Neider (WR) are all probable for the Mountaineers. Keep an eye out for the final availability report.
Overall, this looks like a close game, and I lean slightly toward TCU, 28-24. The Horned Frogs have home field and the better defense. But if Hawkins and the run game find a rhythm, West Virginia has a real shot at the upset.
The Mountaineers (4-3) visit the Horned Frogs (3-3) on Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. Kickoff is at 12:00pm Eastern time on ESPN2.
Photo Credit: WVU Athletics
